Ragweed 2013 Forecast

Ragweed is Here!  Are you Ready?Ok, so perhaps I’m being a bit dramatic when I wrote that title, but to be honest, the theme from Jaws was playing in my head. Still, the summer months are quickly winding down, and despite Mother Nature’s insistence on strange summer weather, fall is rapidly approaching. Not that anyone particularly needs a weather recap, but for much of the country east of the Mississippi, heavy rains have dampened summer temps. This matters some, but the predicted trends for the fall are more important in terms of ragweed season. To try to determine how this year’s season will be, I’ve looked at a couple different sources – NOAA’s National Weather Service, The Weather Channel, and the Old Farmer’s Almanac. That’s right folks. I’m moonlighting as a weather prediction expert and as such, an allergen prediction expert!

_Starting in the Northeast – Apparently the deluge is over? At least that’s the thought. The forecast of a cooler, dry fall for the central and western portions means relatively normal conditions for ragweed. Rain can be a double edged sword when it comes to pollen. It can increase overall pollen production, while a relative lack of it can mean the pollen that is produced will likely be dispersed over a wider area. As one of the lightest pollens, ragweed can literally travel for hundreds of miles before settling. With temperatures possibly being cooler, despite potential above average rain around the upper Mississippi, the overall effect may likely even out some. As a note though, the far Northeast does appear to be slightly warmer than average, so expect pollen counts in the New England states to buck the trend of the larger region.

_Speaking of Rain – The Southeast looks like a coin toss. And as mentioned above, rain can tamp down the dispersal of pollen but may mean greater production of this potent allergen. As showers are typically very hit or miss in the South and Southeast, we could experience bouts of high pollen that will hopefully be cleaned out by nature’s natural cleanser, rain. The prediction of average or cooler than average temps should keep the season in line with those in the past.

_While out West – Conditions could be wetter, but according to NOAA, only really in the Dakotas region. For much of the West, expect slightly warmer than average temperatures. This can spell trouble in terms of ragweed as warmer, dry conditions often lead to widespread pollen dispersal. On another note, this dryer, warmer than normal forecast offers no relief for the current problem – wildfires and smoke.

_To recap, stock up on allergy masks and furnace filters west of the Mississippi, and for the rest of us, stay calm and carry on.

_Regardless of where you are, there are a few things you can do to help with ragweed season. Ragweed can be a particularly potent allergen and is light enough to be widely dispersed. With over two dozen species and the ability for a single plant to produce over a million grains of pollen in a single season, it is a far reaching allergen. So to help,

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    • Monitor the Count – Pollen counts have become a staple of most local forecasts. Keep an eye on this, and outdoor activities that can be rescheduled, should be when the pollen count is particularly high. Warmer, windy days can be some of the worst, so look for rain. The day after rains typically have some of the lowest pollen counts of the season.

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    • Allergy Masks Don't Have to be DrabMasks – A good N95 mask or respirator is handy to have around nearly anytime of the year but particularly during peak allergen seasons. NIOSH rated masks and respirators can filter out allergens like pollen, mold spores and dander. HEPA rated masks (N100) do the best job at this, and there is a wide variety to choose from which gives you many options of price, style and size. Disposable N95 masks are great for doing a little yard work or gardening, while a more stylish mask with a replaceable filters might be a better fit everyday use. Regardless of what you choose, any will help block ragweed pollens.

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    • Filters – If you use an air purifier, fall is a good time to check the filters. Many of the more expensive brands have long filter life and may not need to be changed. Back-blowing can help remove large particles, especially from pre-filters, and extend the life of filters. This simply involves using low pressure compressed air and blowing air back through the filter in the opposite direction of normal airflow. For less expensive air purifiers that often require more frequent filter changes, find your brand and replace the HEPA or particle filter as necessary.

_Ragweed 2013 - Forecast

    • Furnace Filters – These are likely due for a change. During the summer months, we often get lax about things like this, particularly with more people spending time outdoors. Regular replacement can keep your HVAC running in tip-top shape while also filtering out allergens like mold spores and ragweed pollen. Vent filters are also a good idea, particularly for areas where air conditioning isn’t used as much. Fall can mean the first use of the furnace and the dust in the ducts that has been collecting all summer, can be trapped by vent filters.

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    • Landscaping – Keeping brush and dead vegetation clear can help. In areas prone to weeds, try a heavy coat of mulch or even that fabric-style landscaping cover can keep weeds at bay in flower beds, gardens and other areas. By keeping dead or rotting vegetation clear, you can reduce another common fall allergen – mold spores. You can also resort to handy services like Sod Installation in order to revitalize your landscape.

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    • Keep Up With Your Medication – Maintenance medication for asthma (preventatives), should not be skipped during times when seasonal allergies are peaking. When symptoms do flare up, antihistamines can help. These over the counter medications can reduce the histamines that cause the allergic symptoms in most people, and in more severe situations, prescription medications can offer a more potent form of relief.

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  • Rinse – Of course your dentist will recommend that you rinse regularly, but I’m talking about a sinus rinse! Using a saline solution can rinse away allergens and help to reduce symptoms. Rinsing can also moisturize and soothe inflamed sinuses. Though a bit odd, sinus irrigation is a non-pharmaceutical way to bring about relief for many. If you have any other dental concerns, feel free to visit sites such as
    Dentists Ranked.

_Ultimately, who knows? Though my B.A. in history may likely make me as qualified as any ‘meteorologist’ you see on TV, I wouldn’t bet the farm on my weather prediction abilities. And speaking of the farm, I mentioned at the onset that I also referred to the Old Farmer’s Almanac. I fully intended to, until I saw the predictions for our current summer. Considering most of the eastern half of the country was a complete miss, I stuck with NOAA and The Weather Channel. I know my family has often relied on the Almanac, but this year – bust (sorry Dad). Check out the lower image on this page.

_To view NOAA’s temperature and precipitation forecast or the Weather Channel’s fall temperature outlook.

Author: Kevin Gilmore

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